The other day (for class extra credits) I elected to go and
participate in a psychological experiment whose sole purpose was to
measure risks of the human condition-risks that people are willing to take.
What better a prop to use to measure risk-taking than money huh?
Well, the test was set up such that you had to go into a room in front of
a big 32” computer screen (white, bright, and large enough for you the see and think).
The only other computer accessories was a computer mouse (for which your right or
left hand was to navigate through the questioning).
Throughout the test, there were 3 constant questions that rotated from left to right:
• Would you risk a 75% chance of losing $500, $700, $750, $950, $1200, $1250, $1600, $1750, or $1800.00
(the amounts varied through each question)
Or
• Would you go on and hand over $750 (that $750 amount remained the same-throughout each question)
Or
• Would you hand over $0 at a 25% chance at losing nothing at all
As I navigated throughout each question, I continuously clicked: $0…for which I stood the 25%
chance of losing nothing at all-although I stood a 75% chance at losing $500, $700, $750, $950, $1200, $1250, $1600, $1750, or $1800.00.
Because I neglected [throughout the test] to simply hand over $750 (continuously) stood a
75% chance of losing $950, $1200, $1250, $1600, $1750, or $1800.00. But I didn’t care.
I refused to just hand over $750.00 when I could continuously see that I stood a 25%
percent chance of losing nothing at all.
The fact that (for someone else not as optimistic as me, but more of a risk-taker than me), it may seem “logical” to go on a hand
over $750.00 rather than to take that 75% chance of losing well-over
$750 ($950, $1200, $1250, $1600, $1750, or $1800.00).
I tried, but I couldn’t see it that way.
By mid-test (with my continuously clicking $0/at the 25% chance of losing nothing),
I could feel the impatient and agitated body movement of the girl who facilitated
the experiment (most probably getting bored with my answers-where I continuously
clicked onto that annoying little red dot’s answer never changed throughout the entire
forty-five minutes that the test was held).
When the test was over, I looked over at her-she had a connected frown in her brow.
I broke the ice (and her uni-brow) as I smiled and said: “I sure was waiting on
that $750.00 amount to go down to [at least] $250.00 or so, and I probably would have
elected to simply hand over my money. Either that, or remove my 25% chance of losing
nothing at all…that would have forced my hand somewhere in there.”
She replied almost defensively-as if she couldn’t wait to get it off her chest:
“Even though you had a 75% percent chance of losing OVER the $750.00 that you
could have just HANDED over!?”
I stood there (in that very moment) perplexed that she didn’t she what I saw, and
while standing there-I was a bit perplexed at myself, because although I never
fancy myself a pessimist, I always think that blind optimism is rather foolish.
A “reasonable” and “measurably” optimist is what I’d say I am, “faith” is an altogether
different meaning than “optimism.”
But while standing there in all my optimistic splendor (less the bliss),
do you want to know what it is I saw?
Well:
25% of Optimism and losing nothing (to me-in my eyes) is well worth more than a
75% Risk of losing [any amount + handing over all and definitely having nothing-at all].
Even if we took money away from the whole experiment and equation, in my optimistic eyes,
it’s no different than the saying that goes: “An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.”
Regardless [what someone else may have seen-a 75% open door versus a 25% closing door]
I saw the 25% as one big gigantic wide-open door.
And truth be told, she could have turned that 25% down to 1% and I still would have
felt that I stood a chance of losing nothing at all.
Pardon my optimism, but I also learned something about myself that day,
that-like from behind my ebony eyes-you too should carry [this red dot reminder]
that I am passing on to you:
Even in [what may seem like] the greatest and overwhelming amount of darkness from
behind the most seemingly closed of iron doors, there is always a crack of light and bright.
If you can find and see yourself within that small percentage of light and possibility,
you win…so don’t concern yourself with “when”-that’s your value: “In.”